Since my son, Roy, and daughter-in-law, Jenn, have been living in Bangkok, Thailand for over a year now, we’ve been keeping a close watch on the deteriorating political situation there. Normal life has been greatly affected. Since tensions have reached a boiling point, Jenn’s offices have been closed for weeks and Roy has been able to go to work only sporadically. Last weekend, after being unable or unwilling to accept the government’s offer of new elections in November, the Red shirts expanded the conflict zone. Barricades sprang up and fires have been set outside of the central square-mile area they have occupied for the last six weeks. The conflict zone has crept closer and closer to their neighborhood. Late last week, a barricade appeared at the end of their street. Fearful of getting trapped, unable to get out to shop groceries or for emergencies services, Jenn and Roy decided to relocate temporarily to an unaffected part of the Bangkok. Here’s Roy’s email telling us of their move.
We are safe, away from the action now. We moved away from our apartment today and are in another side of Bangkok.
Didn't want to alarm you before, but here (just before the minute mark) is footage from my street, Soi Ngam Duphli, this weekend. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8684288.stm
We wanted to stick it out, but last night was the last straw. Groups of thugs were not too far away erecting their stupid tire blockades, there were lots of blasts not to far away, and I was getting pretty agitated. I went to bed with my clothes on and contacts in just in case I had to jump into action. I was pretty jumpy and I hope Jenn forgives me for that!
This morning was quiet again, but we've had enough and the end is not visible yet. Our apartment is safe, security-wise, but we don’t want to be in a situation where one of those tire blockades traps us indefinitely. So we found a hotel that allows dogs, set the cat up for a few days to protect the apartment (we’ll rescue him if it goes longer then a few more days) and moved to the Thonglor area of Bangkok (Sukhumvit 55). It’s well away from trouble.
The government might be moving into the main Red shirt camp today to clear the area. Then again maybe they are just bluffing again. The city is tired of the Red shirts, for the most part, and also tired of the government's constant missteps. The army's actions haven't exactly contained the crisis, just set tensions ablaze and then have sat back as the reds went mad across the city. Why haven't they called a curfew yet? They planned one for yesterday but then said it might disrupt peoples’ lives. That has got to be the line of year.
Indeed! Of course, the news we get about the situation there comes mostly from the NY Times, NPR, the PBS News Hour, and emails other friends send us. Our friends, Tom and Bev, spend five months of the year in Chang Mai in the north and have lots of Thai friends, so we get emails that their friends send us. So, compared with most Americans (99.5%?), we’re fairly well-informed about the situation there. Nevertheless, the two emails below between Roy and me provide an interesting, and perhaps instructive, illustration of how perspectives can differ. While the impressions I’ve gained aren’t completely wrong, the “back-story” Roy presents cuts a lot closer to what is really going on than anything I’ve read or heard here.
On Sunday, May 17th, I wrote this:
Whatever the merits of the red shirts grievances, they're fast losing public and international support. Public opinion seems to have shifted dramatically in favor of the government and government action. For all of us who wish for the peaceful resolution of conflicts like these, the reality is that options quickly diminish and you're left with only one response. Violence. A week ago, world opinion, and perhaps even Thai opinion, was evenly divided. Most of us greeted the government offer to dissolve parliament and hold elections in November with a sigh of relief. Of course, we thought, the Red shirts would accept that deal; it's what they have been demanding! Or so they said. But, being divided, they were unable to agree. Distrustful and wary, they could not formulate a cohesive response. Perhaps they thought they could leverage more concessions. Then a Red shirt general is shot in the head while being interviewed by a Times reporter. [He died Tuesday.] Quickly, the justification for fighting becomes perverse and devolves into shorter and shorter grievance cycles until it’s "I'm fighting because the government just shot one of our leaders," and eventually "I'm fighting because someone just shot at me!" Since the red shirts are a mix of people with disparate agendas without strong leadership that can exercise discipline and speak for everyone, collective emotions rather than clear thinking seem to be driving the outcome.
So, again, for all of us who wish for a peaceful outcome, the reality is you're left with only one response. Violence. Where are the think tanks devoted to resolution conflict? Where is Jimmy Carter? What would a Quaker do?
Roy’s well-reasoned response was this:
Well, to be honest, the story-line of the outside media about the Red-shirts has been very different then the one told here in Bangkok. It was sort of odd to see international outlets fall for the Red-shirt propaganda about democracy. It put them into a time-tested story line that didn't take much effort for whichever journalist they parachuted in to take up. Meanwhile, people living here know the back-story. They hear stories about how the Red-shirts have been training an 'army' and have raided army bases for weapons. Thais know that [the Red-shirt] leaders are as corrupt as any element in Thailand. They know the damage the Red-shirts have already done to the future of the country. Do the Red-shirts have legitimate grievances, sure, but they have been strongly manipulated to the point of madness.
Thaksin Shinawatra was a rich, corrupt, man, just like the leaders the Red-shirts are raging about now. But, he was also introduced something unheard of in Thai politics: populism. This wasn't bad in itself, but when his corruption got him into hot water, he has used this populism extremely cynically. I don't think he realized everything that would happen, but he ignited a flame that is going to be hard to put out. The Red-shirt leaders make a lot of promises and hand out a lot of money to their supporters. They also poisoned the well of the current political system, creating saints and [demons]. In the end, I don't think the Red-shirts really want democracy, they want to overthrow the government -- they want the power they were promised [by Thaksin].
The elite, meanwhile, mostly in Bangkok, talk eloquently about the house that has been built here, built by the father (the king). It’s a strong house, built for all Thais, they say. The reds want to destroy this beautiful house. But, in the end, it’s always been a house built for the elites to live on top, no matter how generous they thought they were being. They are not blameless in this matter. Thailand has to change; it has to make room for the rural areas to be able to speak out for their needs without violence.
I think the chance of a final confrontation at this point is about 50/50. This is not China, that’s for sure. The army is not in any rush to bring in the tanks against their own people. They want to wait and hope the reds give up. They are letting the Red-shirts rage on. To me, that’s riskier –fires are being set, engulfing buildings, lawlessness is spreading, and people are caught in the crossfire. It just delays the inevitable. I hate to say it, but I find myself wishing the crackdown will finally come, and soon. It’s not my country though, it’s not yours. It isn’t our country that will have to heal after the bloodshed. So they wait, I guess, until they absolutely have to.
So there you have it. Events unfold hourly. By the time this is posted, a settlement may have been reached, or the Army finally will have attacked, or, most likely, nothing will have changed, except the chaos will have spread and Roy and Jenn will have to move again. And Americans will still have missed the story behind the story. As news budgets continue to shrink, a dearth of reliable news will only increase. We have no direct role in events unfolding in Thailand, so news there is only reported sporadically, if at all. However, in those places we do play a role, the lesson is this: Inevitably, we’ll get it wrong. Inevitably, our involvement will just make it worse.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Since this was posted, the Thai military has moved in and many of the Red-shirts have disbursed, but fighting has continued. Whether the conflicts spreads and becomes into a gorilla war, or takes another form remains to be seen.
Update 2, May 19, 2010
For those who would like to delve further into the "back-story", here is a link to an excellent article about the political situation in Thailand. It brilliant piece of political analysis and terrific writing too. Thai article>>
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